Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Five railway 'panels' significant

Malcolm just sent me the lengths of railway track for the fifth estate---Tavistock. Tavistock is away down in the south-west of England in Devon. I was interested to test for this estate because it took longer for the railway to reach down into this relatively remote part of England. Below is a graph showing track mileage for Tavistock and for Dalemain.
Track mileage for Dalemain (in the north-east) and Tavistock (in the south-west)

I'm pleased to say that the results remain highly significant, regressing rent per acre against wheat and cattle prices, and length of track. This regression is 'longitudinal' over the years 1832-1899 with five 'panels', one for each estate. Next step is to add one further estate (Badminton) and then adjust the track amounts with some new data for 1872. I also want to include some data specific to each estate, such as yields, but there are no consistent and reliable time-series for this. It might be possible to 'control' for climatic conditions, such as average rainfall, but this might not be worth the work. With at least one more estate we already have a good outcome.

Now I am working on the structure of the paper and I will post a draft on Google docs for you to read and comment on very shortly.

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