Monday, January 24, 2011

Climatic data found

Malcolm has scored what look's like a bulls-eye. I asked him to locate historical data that we could use to test my hypothesis about weather causing a positive sign in the distance to market regression. Today he found some weather maps which look just the thing---I am particularly interested in July rainfall and August/September sunshine. Wheat does best with good rain in July and then a hot dry couple of months. Somewhere also in his find is some historical time-series data. I need that to calculate the variance. The weather maps give an average which is really useful, but it would be nice to know the variance. The two sequences {1,2,3,4,5} and {3,3,3,3,3} have the same mean but very different variances. If you were a farmer, the historical variance in your rainfall and sunshine might alter your cropping pattern and therefore the rent that you might bid for the use of the land.

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