
Negative relationship between surplus/deficit 

In my last post I presented a map showing counties which were in surplus or deficit. I am convinced there is a relationship between price and surplus or deficit, with the price difference between counties being due to transport costs. I regressed (there you are again!) the flow against the wheat price, and found a strong statistical relationship (p=0.007). Here is a scatterplot which admittedly lookswell, scattered! But you can tell by eye that the relationship is negative. The greater the deficit, shown by having a negative sign on the y axis, the more you pay for wheat, price of wheat on the x axis. Now I need to try somehow to build a mathematical relationship between flow, distances travelled, and wheat prices. If I can find this relationship, then I can set it to zero on one side of the equation to find the 'limit of cultivation'. If that limit happens to be the border between Devon and Somersetproblem solved and game over!
1 comment:
Thanks for the video link! Gives me a better understanding of regression
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